The preliminary rounds for this year’s NCAA Championships begin at the Fort Worth Convention Center in a matter of hours.

Twelve teams battled it out at regionals two weeks ago to earn their spots in Texas this weekend, but only six will continue on in the hopes of becoming the NCAA’s next top champion.

A little bit of background for the newbies. The teams who qualified will compete in one of two subdivisions at prelims. The subdivision a team is part of was decided based on their ranking after regionals, and the top three teams from each subdivision will qualify to the Super Six, which is the fancy NCAA name for team finals, which will be held on Saturday.

Prelims also determine the all-around champion, though this title actually isn’t a huge deal on the NCAA level. It’s a nice honor, but the real battle is for the team title. The girls who finish at the top of the first prelim have to wait all day until the second subdivision finishes to see if they’ve won.

Event finalists are determined here as well. It’s the top four on each event, and if 4^th place is a tie, everyone in that spot gets to compete on Sunday.

If you’re anything like me, you’re thrilled because the first subdivision will be abloodbath. The teams that seeded in here include #2 Florida, #3 Utah, #6 Michigan, #7 UCLA, #10 Georgia, and #11 Stanford. On paper, it looks like the Gators, Utes, and Wolverines will easily move right in, right?

Nope. Not this year. Here’s the thing – Georgia, UCLA, and Stanford are very good teams. They just happened to have the worst starts to their seasons, falling all the time and counting super low team scores. But once things started clicking, they began posting scores that rival those of the top teams. They still have to include many of their low scores in their RQS averages – the number that determines their ranking – but the truth is that they’re much better than how they’re ranked, making this an incredibly dangerous session.

In truth, I’d say Florida is probably safe because they’re Florida. They won their first NCAA title with big mistakes back in 2013, and they typically are calm and cool enough to keep from melting down even if something goes wrong. You can’t say the same about pretty much any of the others, save for Michigan (they’re not as flashy as Florida but they’re crazy solid and could also be an easy pick for the top).

The rest of these guys are prone to drama. UCLA, Georgia, and Utah are the biggest beam disaster schools ever – if one gymnast falls, you can almost bet on more tragedy. After running the show pretty much all season, this is exactly where they combusted at regionals, where they came within half a point of not making nationals at all.

Georgia and UCLA have gotten better about this as the season went on, and look like entirely different teams compared to their January versions. Either one could sneak into the team final, especially if other teams have issues. Then there’s Stanford, who has been all over the place in 2015 – despite injuries and mono barely giving them a full roster at the start of the season, they’ve somehow managed perfect 10s and big wins. Historically they can have their worst season ever and yet still somehow land in the Super Six, so if they work their magic tomorrow afternoon, they definitely have a shot.

The evening subdivision is less exciting – #1 Oklahoma, #4 LSU, #5 Alabama, #8 Auburn, #9 Nebraska, and #12 Oregon State compete in this group. It’s a much more clear-cut session, with Oklahoma, LSU, and Bama almost sure shots for Saturday’s final. They’re all top-notch competitors under pressure, and yet there’s barely any pressure on them due to the relative weakness of the remaining three. In theory, they should have a pretty relaxing meet.

It’s not that the other three aren’t good enough, however, and never say never. There’s just more of a divide between the top three and the bottom three in this case, in terms of both scoring potential and consistency. The bottom three are also lacking a bit in experience – Oregon State hasn’t seen nationals level competition since 2012, it’s the first time in 12 years Auburn has made an appearance, and even Nebraska missed out a couple years back.

The good news for these teams is that something crazy usually happens. It’d be shocking for the top three in this bunch to not make it, but every single team in Fort Worth has the ability to score within a point of one another. Top team or not, rankings don’t matter once you get to the big stage. It’s all or nothing on the day it counts, and how a team competes under pressure will matter a billion times more than a score of 198 earned three months ago.

I hesitate to predict or guess the finalists, if only because this is the kind of meet that renders logic-based analysis useless. I do think we will for sure see a surprise in the first session, with a team outside the top three slipping right in. Every tenth will count this weekend, and prelims is no exception. With everyone on equal ground in terms of start values, the key to the Super Six will be clean skills, stuck landings, and of course – no falls.

If anything, expect surprises above all else. Expect to have your mind blown by the outcome. Expect whatever is furthest from your mind, whatever seems least possible. Expect simultaneous happy tears and rage strokes when your favorite underdog goes above and beyond but misses finals by a tenth when another team – not as deserving in your mind – narrowly edges past.

This year is setting up to be as crazy as ever, and we can’t wait to see what makes us quote the Tyra Banks “I was rooting for you, we were all rooting for you” speech tomorrow.

Article by Lauren Hopkins
Photo thanks to Oklahoma Gymnastics