The Probability of Making the U.S. Worlds Team

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The U.S. world championships team

Every year, we start following and covering the elite competition season in the United States at the earliest optional qualifiers, which typically kick off in January with the last one taking place shortly before the American Classic.

Hundreds of athletes hope to earn their elite status each year, beginning with the compulsory qualification process – which has already started for the 2024 season – where athletes compete basic elements on each event as perfectly as possible, with only the best-executed routines permitting athletes to attend an optional qualifier.

That’s where the elite journey really kicks into high gear, as gymnasts are expected to compete routines much more difficult than what they’re used to doing at the club level, and as you probably know if you follow the sport at all, if an athlete doesn’t have a combination of strong difficulty and excellent execution, they won’t score well, and in the case of qualifying to the elite level, it means they won’t be likely to earn the optional required scores even if they aced the compulsory round.

After qualifying to the elite level, gymnasts earn the opportunity to compete at the Winter Cup, American Classic, and U.S. Classic meets, where they are able to move further up the ranks by qualifying to national championships, where the goal for the best is making the national team…and then the goal for the absolute best is being selected to compete at world championships or the Olympic Games.

The process as we report it is usually more about what’s going on along the way, with a lot of the more quantitative bits and pieces lost along the way. But I find the numbers fascinating, especially as it shows just how difficult it is for even the best athletes in the country to go as far as an elite gymnast can go. That’s why I put together this study of what the year 2023 looked like in the U.S., showing the numbers from the earliest stages right down to the six (including the alternate) who ended up making it to Antwerp.

Stage 1: Elite Goals

It’s probably obvious, but the first step on the path to worlds is actually becoming an elite gymnast.

At the start of each year, some U.S. gymnasts are pre-qualified to elite based on how they performed the previous year and don’t have to repeat the optional qualification cycle, and then there are those with a history as part of the national team who can petition their way back into the elite world even after an extended absence. But for athletes who didn’t pre-qualify or couldn’t petition, the optional qualifiers exist, again assuming they passed their compulsory round.

Below is a list of every senior-level gymnast we saw enter the year with the goal of competing elite, with a total of 60 in the mix.

Maribelle Albert
Ciena Alipio
Bryn Bartman
Simone Biles
Skye Blakely
Charlotte Booth
Jade Carey
Dulcy Caylor
Emilie Chandler
Jordan Chiles
Chloe Cho
Norah Christian
Julia Cotter
Kayla DiCello
Amelia Disidore
Gabriella Disidore
Amari Drayton
Jordis Eichman
Leigh Anne Elliott
Addison Fatta
Karys Griffin
Rylee Guevara
Madray Johnson
Shilese Jones
Katelyn Jong
Levi Jung-Ruivivar
Avery King
Temple Landry
Sunisa Lee
Myli Lew
Kaliya Lincoln
Eveylynn Lowe
Nola Matthews
Konnor McClain
Zoe Miller
Annalisa Milton
Malea Milton
Avery Moll
Elle Mueller
Ella Murphy
Marissa Neal
Brooke Pierson
Michelle Pineda
Christiane Popovich
Joscelyn Roberson
Katelyn Rosen
Lyden Saltness
Jocelyn Sasson
Paloma Spiridonova
Ashlee Sullivan
Tiana Sumanasekera
Brynn Torry
Gabriella Van Frayen
Sabrina Visconti
Finley Weldon
Mahleea Werline
Leanne Wong
Kelise Woolford
Lexi Zeiss
Alicia Zhou

Stage 2: Qualifying Elite

Of the 60 gymnasts who came into 2023 with the goal of competing elite, 11 weren’t able to meet the qualification requirements (an all-around score of 50.000, a three-event score of 38.700, or a two-event score of 26.000), leaving just 49 seniors who qualified to the elite level and would then have the

Ciena Alipio
Simone Biles
Skye Blakely
Charlotte Booth
Jade Carey
Dulcy Caylor
Jordan Chiles
Chloe Cho
Norah Christian
Kayla DiCello
Amelia Disidore
Gabriella Disidore
Amari Drayton
Jordis Eichman
Leigh Anne Elliott
Addison Fatta
Madray Johnson
Shilese Jones
Katelyn Jong
Levi Jung-Ruivivar
Avery King
Sunisa Lee
Myli Lew
Kaliya Lincoln
Eveylynn Lowe
Nola Matthews
Konnor McClain
Zoe Miller
Annalisa Milton
Malea Milton
Avery Moll
Elle Mueller
Ella Murphy
Marissa Neal
Brooke Pierson
Michelle Pineda
Christiane Popovich
Joscelyn Roberson
Katelyn Rosen
Lyden Saltness
Paloma Spiridonova
Ashlee Sullivan
Tiana Sumanasekera
Brynn Torry
Gabriella Van Frayen
Leanne Wong
Kelise Woolford
Lexi Zeiss
Alicia Zhou

Stage 3: Qualifying to Nationals

The only gymnasts who have an automatic pass to nationals are the members of the prior year’s worlds or Olympic team, meaning everyone else has to qualify through the Winter Cup, American Classic, U.S. Classic, or in some cases, through an international assignment or at a national team camp.

The national score requirements are slightly higher than the elite score requirements – seniors must earn a 50.500 all-around score, 39.000 three-event score, or 26.400 two-event score – so we typically see a big drop between stages two and three. In addition to some gymnasts being unable to meet the requirements, we also see several athletes drop from the process for a variety of reasons, like deciding to drop back down to Level 10 or prepare for an upcoming NCAA season, getting injured before being able to attempt to qualify, or in one case in 2023, opting to represent a different national program, as Paloma Spiridonova made the decision to represent Bulgaria shortly after getting her U.S. elite score.

In the end, 31 gymnasts qualified to nationals at the senior level, just a little over half of those who started the elite process at the start of the season.

Simone Biles
Skye Blakely
Charlotte Booth
Jade Carey
Dulcy Caylor
Jordan Chiles
Kayla DiCello
Amelia Disidore
Jordis Eichman
Addison Fatta
Madray Johnson
Shilese Jones
Katelyn Jong
Levi Jung-Ruivivar
Sunisa Lee
Myli Lew
Kaliya Lincoln
Eveylynn Lowe
Nola Matthews
Zoe Miller
Elle Mueller
Marissa Neal
Michelle Pineda
Joscelyn Roberson
Katelyn Rosen
Ashlee Sullivan
Tiana Sumanasekera
Leanne Wong
Kelise Woolford
Lexi Zeiss
Alicia Zhou

Stage 4: Making the National Team

The biggest goal for gymnasts competing at the U.S. national championships is earning a spot on the national team. In 2023, the top 10 all-arounders at nationals earned automatic team spots, but those who don’t make it often have additional opportunities at subsequent national team camps, like the Pan Ams and world championships selection camp.

In addition to the 10 gymnasts who were named to the team at nationals, an additional six athletes earned spots at camp, with a total of 16 gymnasts making the team, which represents about 26% of the athletes who started the elite process in 2023.

Simone Biles
Skye Blakely
Jade Carey
Jordan Chiles
Kayla DiCello
Amelia Disidore
Shilese Jones
Katelyn Jong
Kaliya Lincoln
Eveylynn Lowe
Nola Matthews
Zoe Miller
Joscelyn Roberson
Tiana Sumanasekera
Leanne Wong
Alicia Zhou

Stage 5: Earning a Worlds Team Spot

A total of six gymnasts are named to the world championships team, with five given the opportunity to compete, and one traveling to the competition as an alternate.

These six gymnasts, listed below, represent just 10% of the 60 who embarked on the elite process early in the season, showing just how slight the chances are for a U.S. athlete to reach the ultimate elite goal.

Simone Biles
Skye Blakely
Kayla DiCello
Shilese Jones
Joscelyn Roberson
Leanne Wong

Article by Lauren Hopkins

2 thoughts on “The Probability of Making the U.S. Worlds Team

  1. Thank you so much for this!

    The most amazing thing for me in this is the first number. Only 60 woman even tried qualifying for elite in 2023. Out of all those level 10s! Actually, do you have an estimate for the number of level 10 gymnasts (in the right age group) that started in 2023? I image it to be in the thousands, but I could be way of.

    And then it gets filtered down to 10 % of those in the end.

    Anyway, thank you!

    Liked by 1 person

    • No problem! I don’t track level 10 but based on how many go to JO nationals and attempt to qualify to nationals I’d guess several hundred who are senior elite-aged.

      I think the junior numbers when I put those together will be very different. By the time a gymnast is 16 she basically knows what she wants out of the sport so it’s very rare to see someone newly join elite as a senior, or stay in it for a lengthy period of time if they don’t have a shot at making the national team, though there are a few cases of gymnasts who just really love it and do it regardless of whether they can make teams or not. But we tend to see sooooo many juniors attempt elite each year, most of whom probably aren’t quite ready to do it, but they’re young and want to give it a try. Over 80% of gymnasts who attempted senior elite made it because they mostly have experience at that level or have been prepping for a while, but I’d say that number will be MUCH lower for juniors.

      Also, I don’t track compulsories because scores aren’t always readily available, so I’m not sure how many seniors attempted compulsory qualifications and didn’t qualify to optionals…there are probably many level 10s who attempted compulsories but didn’t ultimately qualify!

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