The Probability of Making the U.S. Junior National Team

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The U.S. junior national team

After launching our deep dive into the numbers involved in the U.S. senior elite process from qualifying to elite all the way to earning a spot on the world championships team, we decided to do something similar with the junior elite process as it happened in 2023, going from the start of the season all the way through to the naming of the national team.

As with the senior process, the juniors kick off the year with optional qualifiers to reach elite status and the opportunity to compete at the Winter Cup, American Classic, and U.S. Classic meets. From there, the hope is to qualify to national championships, and then the ultimate goal is making the national team. There are usually international assignments along the way, including a junior world championships in odd years, but we made the national team our focus here since that moment is generally where the junior elite season peaks in the U.S., as compared to the senior elite season peaking at worlds or the Olympics.

Stage 1: Elite Goals

The first thing any elite hopeful attempts is the compulsory elite qualifier, where athletes perform basic elements and routines and are judged pretty strictly in terms of execution, but once they secure their qualifying scores, they attend the optional qualifiers, which generally begin each January and continue on with around five or so competitions over the next few months.

In addition to the newcomers, some gymnasts are pre-qualified to elite based on how they performed the previous year and don’t have to repeat the optional qualification cycle.

Below is a list of every junior-level gymnast we saw enter last year with the goal of competing elite, with a total of 61 in the mix.

Isabella Anzola
Mia Ballard
Cori Blocker
Sage Bradford
Harlow Buddendeck
Sophia Buechler
Ly Bui
Charleigh Bullock
Cora Burke
Payton Chandler
Tiana Childress
Lavi Crain
Ally Damelio
Lailah Danzy
Fayelee DeHart
Nicole Desmond
Tatum Drusch
Raleigh Easter
Reese Esponda
Kieryn Finnell
Addy Fulcher
Amy Gonzalez
Catherine Guy
Jayla Hang
Gabrielle Hardie
Cambry Haynes
Jazmyn Jimenez
Alexandra Kent
Victoria Kitzmiller
Khloe Lazaridis
Gealy LeBron
Maddi Lewis
Taylor Maye
Ayla Miller
Autumn Moberg
Zoey Molomo
Adele Ossi
Ella Kate Parker
Claire Pease
Jazlene Pickens
Gabby Pierson
Claire Potter
Asia Reid
Brooke Reingold
Hezly Rivera
Simone Rose
Lacie Saltzmann
Kirsten Santana
Jolyn Sicat Valeros
Abigail Sikon
Audrey Snyder
Sydney Snyder
Izzy Stassi
Abby Steeley
Maliha Tressel
Tyler Turner
Carly Weinberg
Kennedy Welsh
Camie Westerman
Halle Wittenberg
Trinity Wood

Stage 2: Qualifying Elite

Of the 61 gymnasts who came into 2023 with the goal of competing junior elite, a total of 40 met the qualification requirements (an all-around score of 49.000), which represents about 65.6% of those who attempted. This is a bit lower than the senior success rate of 81.7%, largely because most seniors who go into the elite season are already pretty well-established, compared to a greater number of juniors who are attempting elite for the first time.

Isabella Anzola
Cori Blocker
Sage Bradford
Harlow Buddendeck
Sophia Buechler
Ly Bui
Charleigh Bullock
Cora Burke
Payton Chandler
Lavi Crain
Ally Damelio
Lailah Danzy
Nicole Desmond
Tatum Drusch
Reese Esponda
Kieryn Finnell
Addy Fulcher
Catherine Guy
Jayla Hang
Gabrielle Hardie
Cambry Haynes
Jazmyn Jimenez
Ayla Miller
Zoey Molomo
Adele Ossi
Ella Kate Parker
Claire Pease
Jazlene Pickens
Gabby Pierson
Hezly Rivera
Simone Rose
Lacie Saltzmann
Jolyn Sicat Valeros
Audrey Snyder
Izzy Stassi
Maliha Tressel
Tyler Turner
Carly Weinberg
Camie Westerman
Trinity Wood

Stage 3: Qualifying to Nationals

No juniors automatically qualify to national championships based on past results, and must earn a 49.500 all-around score via selected national team camps, various international assignments, or the national qualifying competitions, which again include the Winter Cup, American Classic, and U.S. Classic.

In 2023, a total of 24 gymnasts qualified to nationals at the junior level, which is about 39.3% of those who originally began the junior elite journey, again a bit lower than the number of seniors making it to this stage, which was about half.

Isabella Anzola
Sage Bradford
Ly Bui
Charleigh Bullock
Lavi Crain
Ally Damelio
Nicole Desmond
Tatum Drusch
Reese Esponda
Kieryn Finnell
Addy Fulcher
Jayla Hang
Gabrielle Hardie
Zoey Molomo
Ella Kate Parker
Claire Pease
Hezly Rivera
Simone Rose
Lacie Saltzmann
Audrey Snyder
Izzy Stassi
Maliha Tressel
Tyler Turner
Camie Westerman

Stage 4: Making the National Team

The biggest goal for junior gymnasts competing at the U.S. national championships is earning a spot on the national team. In 2023, the top six ranked athletes in the all-around competition earned spots, which represents 9.8% of those who originally attempted the elite journey over the year.

However, an additional two athletes were added at the selection camp for the Tournoi International competition later in the season, with a total of eight athletes, or 13.1% of those who originally attempted the journey, ultimately named to the team.

Ly Bui*
Reese Esponda
Kieryn Finnell
Gabrielle Hardie
Claire Pease*
Hezly Rivera
Simone Rose
Izzy Stassi

* Added to the national team in November

Article by Lauren Hopkins

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