Hashimoto Daiki, Tanigawa Wataru, Oka Shinnosuke, Kaya Kazuma, and Sugino Takaaki

The start lists for the men’s qualifications at the 2024 Olympic Games have been released, and we’re going to talk through each team and notable individuals based on what we’re expecting to see in each subdivision, including any surprises and who will have the best opportunities for finals.

TEAM NOTES

The reigning world champions and 2020 Olympic silver medalists where the now-absent Russia won gold, Japan is again a favorite for gold this year, led by the reigning Olympic and two-time world all-around champion Hashimoto Daiki. He’s joined by fellow all-arounder Oka Shinnosuke, who should have been on the worlds team last year but all is right in the world now, while we’ll also see Sugino Takaaki on floor, pommel horse, and high bar, Tanigawa Wataru on floor, rings, vault, and parallel bars, and Kaya Kazuma on every event but vault, serving as a steady lead-off athlete on all five of his apparatuses.

With the depth to simultaneously prioritize a solid team balance as well as what could be a stellar run for individual finals, I think the Japanese team not only has it all, but unlike other teams with major roster changes compared to worlds last year, Japan’s changes are actually largely for the better, with added depth to most events that should help them stay afloat ahead of China.

This quad has been a weird one for China, which qualified fourth in 2022 before going on to win gold in the team final, and then came within a couple of tenths from missing the final completely last year, only to increase their score by nearly six points to wind up with silver. This kind of hit-or-miss behavior is my biggest concern for them again this year, but as with Japan, they’ve made some roster improvements that will only help instead of hurt.

The biggest of these is Zhang Boheng‘s return. The 2021 world all-around champion and 2022 silver medalist was wildly not selected for the Games in Tokyo, and then he was unable to compete at worlds last year after prioritizing the Asian Games in Hangzhou, where he won all-around, high bar, and team gold. An unfortunate national championships this year, where he struggled with injury that took him out of the all-around final after three events, means he hasn’t been as much on the radar as he should, but he looked mostly good in podium training and while he said he’s nervous about his Olympics debut, I think he should put up quite the fight for the podium if he can do what he’s capable of.

Veteran Xiao Ruoteng joins him in the all-around tomorrow, where we’ll see Liu Yang on every apparatus but pommel horse, Zou Jingyuan on pommel horse, rings, and parallel bars, and Su Weide, a new addition to the team taking the place of the dependable but injured Sun Wei, on floor, pommel horse, vault, and high bar. Like the Japanese team, there is a strong balance between team and individual goals, with two exceptional all-arounders and three specialists who are expected to add massive scores to most of their respective events. I still think Japan may have the edge, but I’m optimistic about China’s ability to give them an incredible run for their money.

Though Ukraine missed the team final at worlds last year, they returned to the major international stage with incredible flair at Euros this year with the same exact team, who added a full 10 points to their worlds qualifications score (where they narrowly missed qualifying to the Olympic Games by finishing in 12th place, just over a tenth ahead of Brazil).

The same five athletes from both teams will compete in Paris, including all-arounders Illia Kovtun and Oleg Verniaiev, Nazar Chepurnyi on every event but rings, Radomyr Stelmakh on every event but vault, and Igor Radivilov stepping in on both of those events. I think their Euros title speaks for itself in terms of this team’s potential to land on the podium here, and if all goes according to plan, this team could have what it takes to stand out ahead of both the U.S. and British teams.

Finally, the Netherlands wasn’t a team I had on my “absolutes” for qualifying to Paris last year, and I don’t think they’ll be a contender for the final this year. With Frank Rijken, Jermain Grünberg, and Casimir Schmidt in the all-around, Loran de Munck on pommel horse and parallel bars, and Martin de Veer rounding them out on floor, rings, vault, and high bar, it’s a pretty solid group, but they don’t really have the difficulty as a whole nor the individual standouts to give them the push needed to fit into the team final picture.

ALL-AROUND NOTES

The biggest story of men’s gymnastics in the context of this Games is of course going to be the showdown between Hashimoto and Zhang, which has already been epic this quad when we’ve been blessed to see them compete side-by-side, though of course this will be the ultimate arena for their friendly rivalry to blossom.

In a perfect world, the two will win gold and silver in a nail-biting battle that comes down to less than a tenth, though I will say I have my concerns about Zhang not being quite up to par when compared to Hashimoto right now. A finger injury kept Hashimoto out of the NHK Trophy, so it also hasn’t been an ideal season for him, but Zhang’s experience at nationals was concerning and I hope he’s had the time to physically and mentally get past that and show us the best he’s able to do.

Xiao and Oka are also absolutely medal contenders, with both actually outscoring Zhang’s qualifications score at nationals, though I do recognize that Zhang has greater potential to score higher. They will add to the excitement of the final along with Kovtun, while Verniaiev is another from this group who is likely to make the final, though I wouldn’t consider him a medal threat despite his surprising silver at Euros this year.

Speaking of Euros, the all-around champion Marios Georgiou of Cyprus is in this subdivision and he should also be well in contention to make the final, with Carlos Yulo of the Philippines and Milad Karimi of Kazakhstan another to add to the list. The other individual all-arounders in this subdivision are Jesse Moore of Australia and Omar Mohamed of Egypt, neither of whom will be a top threat, but if they have their best possible days, both could maybe be bubble athletes.

FLOOR NOTES

Getting Su on China’s team last-minute is probably most exciting in terms of his floor final potential, where he could be a legitimate medal threat. Both Zhang and Xiao also can’t be counted out here, while Japan will see Hashimoto in the best position to final, though Oka should also be capable, as are Yulo, Kovtun, and Karimi among the all-arounders. Yulo hasn’t been quite at his strongest on this event over the past year or so, but I think he’s still able to pull out some feats of greatness here, and his tumbling looked great in podium training.

There are no floor specialists in this subdivision, though tripartite nominee Lais Najjar of Syria will be competing on this apparatus as one of the four he’s doing in Paris, with floor generally one of his standouts.

POMMEL HORSE NOTES

Again, we have to look at Hashimoto here as he’s capable of 15+ scores, but I do think he’ll miss out if all of the “horse guys” are at their best, while Sugino is excellent on this apparatus and should also be in the mix. I honestly don’t see any of the Chinese men making it, though Zhang and Zou should score well enough to be on the bubble.

Verniaiev and Kovtun are both capable for Ukraine, and this is where the Netherlands has its biggest hope for an individual final, as de Munck is outstanding here, and he’s coming off of the silver medal at Euros here. Georgiou also medaled at Euros, winning the bronze with one of the best routines I’ve seen him do, so he could be on the periphery as well.

The biggest medal contender in this subdivision is Nariman Kurbanov of Kazakstan, who has earned score of 15.5 or better in five international competitions this year alone, an achievement made even more massive when you consider that only three athletes have done this in 2024, with Ahmad Abu Al Soud of Jordan doing it once in Doha, while Lee Chih-Kai of Taiwan, who did not qualify for the Games, made it happen in Baku qualifications. A gold medal is definitely within reach for him with a hit routine.

RINGS NOTES

Reigning Olympic and world champion Liu is the one to beat this year, and in the absence of You Hao, there should be room for Zou to slip in and possibly be in the medal hunt. This is where China really has an edge over Japan, which tends to have lower difficulty on this apparatus and will almost certainly not see any finalists, while Radivilov could be a maybe for Ukraine.

None of the all-arounders in this subdivision really count rings as a strength, with the exception of Mohamed, though I don’t think his routine will be strong enough to sneak in. Otherwise, specialists Vahagn Davtyan of Armenia and Samir Äit Saïd of France both tend to score high enough to make it and are key players on my shortlist of potential finalists, though perhaps not quite as much on my list for medalists.

VAULT NOTES

Tanigawa is going for two vaults here, though this isn’t something he’s attempted so far this year due to an injury, and while his vaults in general are strong, I’m not sure where he’ll stand in this field? I don’t see him as making the final and am setting expectations low, though am looking forward to watching to see if we’ll be happily surprised.

Chepurnyi, meanwhile, is one of my favorite vaulters of all time and I have him high on my list of medal hopefuls, and teammate Radivilov should be in the mix for the final if he can put both to his feet, while Schmidt has a high difficulty combination and could end up sneaking in. Among the all-arounders, Yulo should be a guarantee for the final if he can hit in qualifications, but the same was true last year and he got a zero on his first vault, so don’t count your chickens for him or anyone. Finally, Mohamed would be an outside shot, but we could see a few of these bubble athletes getting in given the tempestuous nature of this apparatus!

The top specialist in this subdivision is probably the best vaulter in the world right now. Artur Davtyan of Armenia is my absolute favorite for gold, though uncharacteristic mistakes at worlds last year and Euros this year held him back. When he sticks, though, his execution will be better than anyone else in Paris, and he sticks often, so I’m still considering him the most likely to win the title. There’s also Shek Wai Hung of Hong Kong, who is kind of the opposite of Davtyan in his consistency – or lack thereof – though he’s very exciting to watch and will be coming in as one of five athletes who have put up the top combination of difficulty in the world this year.

PARALLEL BARS NOTES

The gold is Zou’s to lose, with the reigning Olympic champion the only one in this field capable of scoring above a 16, which he did twice at nationals this year. Zhang is also strong here, while for Japan I see Oka and Kaya as most likely to make it, though Tanigawa is also great. Kovtun should be another medal contender, while I think we could see Verniaiev or Chepurnyi in the final as well.

Among the all-arounders, Yulo is a massive standout, and this is possibly going to be Georgios’ best shot at an apparatus final if I had to pick just one for him, and the specialist in this group – Angel Barajas of Colombia – is going to be the one to watch. He’s perhaps not as polished as many of the others, but his high difficulty makes him super exciting to follow and I think even with a couple of mistakes or messy execution deductions he’ll still be likely to wind up in the final.

HIGH BAR NOTES

Japan will have two medal favorites on this event with Hashimoto and Sugino both incredible to watch, capable of massive difficulty done brilliantly. While China isn’t as much of a threat, Su did win bronze at worlds with an absolutely gorgeous routine, not as noticeably difficult, but still superb, while both Xiao and Zhang are capable of scores in the mid-14s and can’t be counted out.

For Ukraine, I’d say Kovtun could be a finals contender with one of his best sets, while Georgiou and Karimi are kind of in the same boat, but it’ll depend on how they look in comparison to others who have similar levels of ability, since there are quite a few guys I’d like to see here but not the room for all of them to make it. Again, Barajas is also on my list, and with a 6.8 D-score – the highest in the world this year – I think he’ll be almost certain to get in, but as with parallel bars, he’s a bit rushed and scattered in some of his work and the hits to his E-score could be harsh.

Article by Lauren Hopkins