Hezly Rivera, Sunisa Lee, and Jade Carey in the back with Jordan Chiles and Simone Biles in the front

The start lists for the women’s qualifications at the 2024 Olympic Games have been released, and we’re going to talk through each team and notable individuals based on what we’re expecting to see in each subdivision, including any surprises and who will have the best opportunities for finals.

TEAM NOTES

With the U.S. women in this subdivision, there’s obviously a lot to say. While not the reigning Olympic champions, this squad is the highest-ranked team from the 2020 Games that we’ll see competing in Paris, and they’ve won the last two world championships team titles, so they’re clearly a safe bet for the gold medal fight here.

Three members of the Tokyo team will compete here, with 2016 Olympic all-around champion Simone Biles and 2020 Olympic all-around champion Sunisa Lee both competing all four apparatuses alongside Jordan Chiles, while Jade Carey – who competed as an individual in Tokyo – will bring in scores on vault and floor, and newcomer Hezly Rivera will tackle bars and beam. It’s a solid and balanced group likely to earn multiple individual finals berths in addition to topping the team podium, but as we learned in Tokyo, anything’s possible in gymnastics and they will see a legitimate challenge from a hungry Brazilian team.

China will see star Qiu Qiyuan along with 2020 Olympian Ou Yushan in all-around spots, while Zhang Yihan will put up routines on vault, bars, and floor, Zhou Yaqin will go up on vault, beam, and floor, and Luo Huan – who surprised to make the team as a 24-year-old veteran after missing out in 2016 and 2020 – will serve as the leadoff athlete on bars and beam.

I always say that China has a ton of potential, and with how close the team got back to standing on the podium in 2023, I’d love to see these athletes turn things around and make it happen once again. The ability is there with absolute brilliance on bars and beam, though vault – despite some upgrades – and floor have held them back in recent years and whether they can regain a spot on the podium will come down to what they do on those events.

Finally, the Italians are one of my favorite teams to watch every year, and though they are missing key player Asia D’Amato, who was injured at Euros in the spring, I think the team is just about as complete as it can be in her absence and could be looking to get back on the major international podium for the first time since 2018, especially with Manila Esposito rising to the occasion.

She, Alice D’Amato, and Elisa Iorio will compete in the all-around, while Angela Andreoli will step up on vault, beam, and floor, and Giorgia Villa will compete only on bars (which is a bit of a surprise as I had her pegged for beam as well, so I hope she’s doing okay and if not, am glad they’re limiting her a bit).

ALL-AROUND NOTES

Biles is kind of the obvious one, and I do think Lee will be her second-in-command for the Americans, though I also wouldn’t count Chiles out – she’s been on fire this season and I would not be at all surprised to see her knock one out of the park. I think both Qiu and Ou will get in for China, with Qiu doing her absolute best to maximize her potential by adding a Yurchenko double full on vault, while both D’Amato and Esposito should finish somewhere in the top eight if they do what they’re capable of.

The Germans will have both first-year standout Helen Kevric and Sarah Voss hoping to make the all-around final, with Kevric the most likely, though I think Voss can do it as well, while Kaylia Nemour of Algeria has gone from finals potential to podium potential after doing the most on bars, beam, and floor at a recent friendly meet in Romania, and also showing that her Yurchenko double full on vault is possibly going to make a comeback here.

Also in this subdivision is Lihie Raz of Israel, and though I think the final may be just beyond her grasp, she could be on the bubble for making it on a good day.

VAULT NOTES

The U.S. team has its top three vaulters competing two runs here, with Biles almost certain to snag one spot thanks to her brilliant Yurchenko double pike and a strong Cheng, while Chiles and Carey will battle it out for the second spot. Chiles is the 2022 world silver medalist on vault, though Carey topped her at the Olympic trials and has more than a point of a difficulty edge over Chiles. Still, Chiles actually had the higher average on the second day of trials and has generally seen stronger execution, so it’s going to come down to who has the better day tomorrow.

Raz is the only other athlete in this subdivision putting up two vaults, and though she made the worlds final in 2022, I think this year’s field will be a bit too advanced to see her sneak in.

UNEVEN BARS NOTES

Lee, of course, is one to watch for both the final and the podium, but we all know that while Biles isn’t a “BaR wOrKeR” she rarely misses this final. Whether adding a Weiler 1½ will help or hurt her is still up in the air, if she decides to go for it. I’d also say either Chiles or Rivera could be an outlier for the final if they compete at their best. This U.S. team isn’t a “bars team” in the traditional way but all four athletes are actually pretty excellent and are all capable of going 14+ with hits, which could make things interesting, especially if other top contenders make mistakes. But the bars field as a whole is pretty steep, so I’d consider Lee a definite and the other three only maybes.

As the reigning gold and silver world medalists, Qiu and Nemour are going to be massive threats for the podium here. Both are capable of surpassing a 7.0 D score and it’s going to be incredibly difficult for any other athletes to catch up, though China will also have Zhang as a strong contender, while D’Amato will be the strongest for Italy with Iorio and Villa as potential backups, and Kevric should be a standout for the German team.

BALANCE BEAM NOTES

The U.S. team has four really solid beam workers, and as with bars, while it’s not the most “aesthetic” team it’s still one that should field two finalists, with Biles and Lee the most likely due to their high levels of difficulty and generally brilliant execution here. China, meanwhile, has several athletes who are both high-difficulty and give that aesthetic many fans want to see, with Qiu and Zhou my favorites for earning spots – and potentially medals as well.

While beam has often been a weaker event for the Italians, it’s largely due more to mistakes than their abilities here. If they hit, they should definitely get at least Esposito into the final with her lovely and exciting routine, and I think D’Amato could also have the scores to sneak in on a good day, while Andreoli would be a surprise, but she’s another one with a fantastic routine if she can hit it.

For Germany, both Voss and Pauline Schäfer – who is only competing beam and floor here – should be standouts, with Schäfer a possibility for the final if she can hit her top level of difficulty with the execution she’s usually capable of, while Nemour also has a lovely set and would be on my list as one to watch as well.

FLOOR EXERCISE NOTES

The reigning Olympic floor champions – Biles in 2016 and Carey in 2020 – will both compete in this subdivision, and while Biles is nearly a guarantee, I think Carey will get some competition from Chiles, who matched her pretty much evenly at trials. Regardless of who gets in, though, I do think two Americans are practically a lock for this final.

I don’t believe China will get any athletes into the floor final, but I absolutely love Zhang on this apparatus, and Ou has scored well internationally on her set, though I’m not sure either is capable of the high 13s that this final may require. For Italy, it’s again going to be Esposito, D’Amato, and Andreoli in the mix, and I think any of them could be capable of hitting the scores necessary, so it’ll just come down to who fares best in qualifications.

Article by Lauren Hopkins