Team Australia

Now that the women’s start lists are being finalized and qualifications kick off tomorrow, I thought I’d take us through what is perhaps the most exciting and important part of this year’s world championships – the team competition.

I’m sure you know this already, but not only are teams battling for spots in the final and on the podium this year, there are also nine Olympic berths up for grabs, with around seven teams that I feel pretty confident will make it, but there are another seven I see as being right on their heels, and given that this is gymnastics, I’m absolutely banking on some big surprises.

Already Qualified

The U.S. women’s team won its sixth-straight worlds team title last year, making history while also securing an Olympics berth, but while they’re already safe for Paris, don’t think they’re going to sit back and rest on that knowledge. Between Simone Biles‘ comeback, the return of the 2022 world champions Shilese Jones, Skye Blakely, and Leanne Wong, and the debut of the exciting young Joscelyn Roberson, the U.S. team is shooting for greatness yet again, and will very likely make history once again with a seventh title in a row.

Great Britain, last year’s silver medalists, are also looking incredibly strong, coming off of a big win in the team final at European Championships and showing that they’re ready to go for broke on vault, with one of the most impressive rotations that includes a Cheng from Jessica Gadirova and an Amanar from Ruby Evans. I think this team will almost certainly medal again this year barring any serious drama in the final, and am excited to watch them continue to make waves on the biggest international stage.

I’m conflicted on how Canada will look here. On paper, they do have a great team, led by veteran Ellie Black, who also led her team to a shocking bronze medal in last year’s team final. She’s the only returning member of the team, however, though there are excellent replacements. I think this team has the potential to look fantastic, but whether they medal or not will be more about how other stronger teams look in comparison. Last year, Canada was able to take advantage of mistakes from stronger teams to climb from eight place – they made the final just three tenths ahead of the Netherlands last year! – to third, and I think their medal chances this year will be in a similar vein.

The Best Bets for Paris

I think I’m pretty solid on seven teams here in terms of who should definitely earn spots, again, barring total disaster. First on that list is one team I thought would earn a spot last year but ended up struggling – Brazil. Hampered by Flavia Saraiva‘s injury and some uncharacteristic mistakes in the team final last year, the team still finished fourth less than a point behind Canada. This year, they’re once again one of my favorites for a medal, especially with Saraiva back to pretty much full strength, Rebeca Andrade looking flawless, veterans Jade Barbosa and Lorrane Oliveira able to contribute, and the lovely beam and floor worker Julia Soares on the roster.

Italy has been through some injury trauma this year, losing Asia D’Amato at a world cup in the spring, Martina Maggio to a surgery in June, and then Giorgia Villa just after nationals, reminiscent of her Olympic experience in 2021. Still, I don’t really fear for them? Maybe they won’t be as strong in the medal hunt as they could be, but Alice D’Amato is basically looking better than ever, Manila Esposito has come into her own as a fantastic competitor across the board, Elisa Iorio is finally back in action at a high level, and there are some young standouts in Angela Andreoli and Arianna Belardelli who are both very talented and could use a bit more international experience at a high level.

I don’t know what to think about China. On paper, they’re pretty high on my list, especially with athletes like Ou Yushan and Qiu Qiyuan on the list, but this team is very weak on vault and not quite there on floor either, so I’m a bit worried that they’ll be held back by low scores on events that will be major for other teams, and then if they also have disasters on bars and beam…well, things could get scary. I don’t see them falling out of the top 12, or even not making the team final, so I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt based on their potential.

France and the Netherlands have fantastic teams, and I don’t think either will struggle to reach Paris here. Both teams are full of veterans capable of really big scores and have team final potential in addition to top 12 potential, in addition to likely seeing a number of individuals making all-around and apparatus finals.

Last year, I truly didn’t think Japan would place in the top 12 based on how the beam routines from the athletes on the team had looked all season, and then they went and slayed beam in qualifications before going on to win two of the three medals, so I think despite not having an ideal team this year after an injury to reining beam champion Watanabe Hazuki and also looking a bit rough in podium training, I don’t ever want to count them out again. With a lot of talent in the field this year, maybe there’s a chance that they won’t make the team final, but I would be surprised if they can’t make Paris work.

In the last spot on my list is Australia, which was a team I thought could make the final last year, but with a last-minute injury, they fell just a bit short of making it happen. This year, they also saw an injury to Miella Brown in the weeks leading up to worlds, but with the fifth spot on the team between her and last year’s injured athlete, Emily Whitehead, it meant Whitehead automatically got the spot. Brown was hoping to make the team with a Yurchenko double on vault – the skill she ended up being injured on in Paris – but Whitehead is fantastic on vault in her own right, and has the experience that could really help the team in a situation like this.

The team also has Georgia Godwin leading the team, and she’s of course going to be incredible, and they’re also bringing in the ridiculously talented first-year senior Ruby Pass, brilliant beam worker Breanna Scott, and bars standout Kate McDonald, so while they missed qualifying a team to both Rio and Tokyo, I think this quad will be very different.

In the Bubble

In addition to my seven likelies, I also have seven bubble teams. First, I’m going to talk about the teams that qualified last quad, which include Germany, Belgium, and Spain, all of which are still strong teams, but Germany and Belgium have been dealt wild injury blows this year, and I have to say it’s making me a bit nervous for them both.

Before the injuries, I think both would have been on my first list, but Germany losing two key members of the team before worlds and then potentially Lea Marie Quaas after podium training might be a bit too hard to come back from. Last year, the team had both Sarah Voss and Pauline Schäfer out of commission, and the young team led by Elisabeth Seitz still did well enough to place 12th, but this year with Seitz and Emma Malewski‘s scores both missing, as well as the possible inclusion of a last-minute alternate, I’m very anxious about their chances. That said, I was similarly anxious about the German men’s team, and they outperformed China today, so literally anything is possible in this sport.

Belgium is missing its two biggest stars, Nina Derwael and Lisa Vaelen, and while I trust Maellyse Brassart‘s leadership abilities, it’s obviously going to be ridiculously hard for the replacements to bring in anywhere near the same scoring potential as the two they’re missing, especially since the team finished 11th last year with Derwael and Vaelen.

I’m not necessarily worried about Spain in the same way I am with these two, especially since their qualification to Tokyo was a bit of a surprise with Brazil missing out. They’ve continued to do really well this quad, and have the makings of an excellent team in Antwerp, but my concern is less about this team being weak, and more about other teams simply being stronger. I think they definitely have the potential to break into the top 12, but it could take some mistakes from other teams that also have that potential.

The four on my list who didn’t compete in Tokyo are, in no particular order, Mexico, South Korea, Romania, and Hungary. Okay, Hungary may be the lowest for me on that list after losing Zsofia Kovacs to injury, but they have a brilliant first-year senior in Lili Czifra and an otherwise incredibly strong team that has the potential for especially strong scores on vault and bars, but I don’t know if I trust beam and floor as much, since the depth to fill out those lineups isn’t quite there without Kovacs.

Otherwise, I’m very excited about the other three. Mexico has its best team probably in history, with Alexa Moreno in top form, and there truly isn’t a weak link elsewhere – and they’re all healthy, knock wood! South Korea is in a similar position, with its absolute best athletes all looking strong and ready to go, led by Olympic medalist Yeo Seojeong and her Tokyo teammate Lee Yunseo, while Romania is doing huge things this year thanks in part to new seniors Sabrina Voinea and Amalia Ghigoarta, while Ana Barbosu has stepped up as a top all-arounder.

Likely Out

My final seven teams fall into the group of those that likely won’t qualify full teams, but that’s not to say that these aren’t excellent squads – they just really don’t have the overall difficulty to contend with the ones higher on my list, though I have a feeling some could surprise and outscore a few of those that I have positioned higher.

I love the Swedish team – they’re incredibly artistic and though they won’t have Nathalie Westlund this year, the team did get Jennifer Williams back for the first time in two years, so I’m super excited to see how she performs. Finland lost Maisa Kuusikko a few weeks ago and also hasn’t had Sani Mäkelä in action this year, so they’re unfortunately going to be a bit weaker than they’re capable of generally.

Staying within Europe, Austria and Czechia are also some of my favorites to watch thanks to some standout individual routines, though I think simply getting a full team to worlds was a big deal for both teams, so Olympic qualification likely won’t happen without some of the depth we see from the stronger teams.

It was a massive deal to see the South Africans defeat Egypt at the African Championships this year, and they have some incredible individual talent, including 2020 Olympians Caitlin Rooskrantz and Naveen Daries, with Rooskrantz once again going to be an individual contender for a spot here, though the team will be a bit too far behind as a whole to contend.

Taiwan is another team with some great individual work, but in addition to lacking overall difficulty, its top athletes arrived in Antwerp directly after competing at the Asian Games, so I’m worried about their ability to contend here. That includes Ting Hua-Tien, who looked fantastic on beam in Hangzhou, so I’m hoping she can perform at the same level here to finally make the final after getting very close on two occasions, but I’m worried that fatigue could be an issue.

Finally, Argentina is at a bit of a lower level than we’ve expected in recent years and you’ll see a few new faces on the list, with Leila Martinez and Brisa Carraro, who stepped in as the alternate following an injury to Meline Mesropian, the only two returning from worlds last year, where the team placed 20th. But I am very excited to see Lucila Estarli, who turns 30 next month, make her first worlds team since she made her debut in 2010!

Article by Lauren Hopkins