Breanna Scott, Emma Nedov, Emily Whitehead, Ruby Pass, and Kate McDonald

The start lists for the women’s qualifications at the 2024 Olympic Games have been released, and we’re going to talk through each team and notable individuals based on what we’re expecting to see in each subdivision, including any surprises and who will have the best opportunities for finals.

TEAM NOTES

It’s been a wild ride for Brazil over the past five years, going from not qualifying a full team to the Olympic Games in Tokyo to standing on the podium with silver medals as a team at world championships last year. Now, they’re coming into Paris as one of the medal favorites, led by Rebeca Andrade – already an Olympic champion and a big individual threat here – and also including Flavia Saraiva and Jade Barbosa in the all-around, Lorrane Oliveira on vault and bars, and Julia Soares – the only first-time Olympian on the team – on beam and floor.

Brazil should be a guarantee for the final even if they struggle in qualifications, and I think they’re also almost certainly going to medal, even if they have to count a fall in the team final. Of course, a disaster in the final would count them out, and they probably couldn’t afford to count more than one or two major mistakes, but they are coming in as one of the best teams in the world and a hit day for them will one hundred percent see them on the podium.

Also competing in this subdivision are the Australians, another program that missed out on qualifying a full team to the Games last quad as well as in 2016. They’re missing star performer Georgia Godwin, who suffered an Achilles injury earlier this summer, but will have young all-around standout Ruby Pass on the roster alongside 2020 Olympian Emily Whitehead on vault, bars, and floor, bars standout Kate McDonald on bars, beam, and floor, beam standout Breanna Scott on vault and beam, and Emma Nedov – who retired in 2020 but started her comeback campaign late last year – on all four events after winning the Oceania all-around title in May.

Had Godwin been healthy, I would have considered Australia a major threat for the team final, especially after they got so close with mistakes at worlds last year. Without Godwin, I’d consider them more of a bubble team, and don’t think they can afford any major mistakes if they want to move forward, but I also wouldn’t count them out solely on Godwin being out. They have a lot of experience, and a great balance across all four events, while other squads around the same level of scoring potential are also missing top performers, so I’d absolutely keep them in the mix.

ALL-AROUND NOTES

While I’m sure leading her team to a historic podium finish is Andrade’s biggest goal here, she’ll also be a massive threat for basically every single individual final, and should be the biggest competition for Simone Biles in the all-around. I do think Biles will be hard to beat, but if both hit every routine, Andrade can match her scoring potential on pretty much every apparatus except vault – where Biles will come in with a massive advantage thanks to her unassisted Yurchenko double pike – and floor. If Biles has to count a fall in the final, I think Andrade will be right there to take over the top spot on the podium.

With Saraiva and Barbosa also competing in the all-around, Brazil will absolutely get a second competitor into the final, though neither would be medal threats, with Saraiva getting a top eight finish probably the most realistic goal here. For Australia, Pass should make the final with Nedov possibly a second option, though her top scores this season are right at the line where the scoring cutoff should be, so she’s more of a bubble option.

This subdivision will see all three Spanish athletes in the all-around, with national champion Ana Perez – back to an incredible level following a horrific injury – a top bet for making the final, though Alba Petisco and Laura Casabuena have been incredible all quad and I wouldn’t count any of them out as potentially getting in. There’s also new Hungarian standout Lili Czifra, who has upped her difficulty game over the past year and could be very likely to get in, along with Maellyse Brassart of Belgium as someone with the potential to make it, while Jana Mahmoud of Egypt could possibly achieve a high enough score, though would need her best day ever to reach the final.

VAULT NOTES

Both the reigning Olympic and world champion, Andrade will be a massive podium threat again this year. I do think Biles will take the title if she hits both of her runs given her massive difficulty advantage, but I stand firmly by my opinion that Andrade has the best Cheng of all time, and whether she competes an Amanar or just the Yurchenko double for her second vault, she will easily snag the silver medal, and if Biles falters as she did at worlds last year, the gold will certainly go to Andrade.

Another two-vault threat in this subdivision is Csenge Bacskay of Hungary, who qualified to the Olympics thanks to her performance in vault qualifications at world championships last year. I don’t consider her a final threat this year, but she managed to just sneak in at worlds, and I feel like she could again be on the bubble this time around with hits.

UNEVEN BARS NOTES

Reigning Olympic champion Nina Derwael will be the biggest podium threat on the uneven bars in this subdivision, though due to a shoulder injury that nearly kept her from being able to qualify for Paris, I don’t think we’ll see her at quite the level she’s reached in the past, and she’ll have some major competition from athletes doing a much higher level of difficulty this time around. If everyone hits as they’re capable of, I’d consider Derwael as one of the athletes inn the running for bronze, though.

Again, Andrade should be a contender for this final, though probably not for the podium. She’s wonderful here, but her best routines tend to be around the mid-14s, which won’t be among the top scoring routines here if we see everyone hit. I’d also consider McDonald a bubble athlete, along with Zoja Szekely of Hungary, though Szekely’s journey to the Olympics has been a rocky one and she didn’t actually get a spot until yesterday when teammate Zsofia Kovacs was forced to withdraw due to injury. Having stopped training earlier in the week thinking her chances to fill in as an alternate were over, Szekely unfortunately may not be at the level of preparation she’d hoped for, which could affect her score.

BALANCE BEAM NOTES

Brazil has several top options who could make the beam final and possibly medal, including Andrade, Saraiva, and Soares. I’d love to see Saraiva finally pull off a medal this time around, though I worry that she will fall either in prelims or the final – something of a habit of hers – though I love that Brazil has enough beam depth this year and could see two finalists even if Saraiva doesn’t make it. Andrade was a bit of a surprise for me as a medalist at worlds last year, and she’s one who doesn’t always have the scores but can make it happen when it counts, so she’s again on my list of medal contenders.

For Australia, both Scott and Nedov are excellent on this apparatus, and while I’m not sure if they’d score quite high enough to make it, I’d consider them bubble athletes who could sneak into the final, especially if others have mistakes. Derwael – who actually qualified to Paris thanks to beam, not bars – is another bubble athlete for me, having picked up a few 13.6-13.7 range scores throughout her season, which could be just enough to make it in. Finally, I love Ting Hua-Tien of Taiwan, and think that making beam her sole focus of this Olympic Games could be beneficial for her, with the final a possibility for her if she can hit to the best of her ability in prelims.

FLOOR EXERCISE NOTES

Again, the three Brazilian athletes who should excel on beam – Andrade, Saraiva, and Soares – will also likely be the ones we see excel on floor, and I think all three could be both final and medal contenders. Andrade and Saraiva both got medals at worlds last year, with Andrade winning silver and Saraiva winning bronze, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an identical podium this year, with Biles again the top choice for the top (unless she has mistakes, in which case I’d consider Andrade a threat for gold).

Article by Lauren Hopkins