There’s only one practice left before the 2015 American Cup, to be held March 7 at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, and it’s looking like it’s going to be an awesome fight.

Yes, I said a fight. Maybe not for the title – USA’s Simone Biles, the two-time world champion who won silver at this competition in 2013 – has that locked down. She was a beast at podium training, hitting three perfect Amanars, looking steady on beam, and destroying floor, making her insane difficulty (including a DLO full, the Biles to a split jump, double double, and full-in) look super easy. What else can you say about Simone, honestly?

The only issue she had was a little leg separation on bars, very minor, especially considering bars is her weakest event and she’s adding a piked Tkatchev to pak to up her difficulty. Even at this odd point in the season, she’s ready. In fact, she seemed more concerned about finishing a report on the Berlin Wall for school this weekend than she did about actually competing. She’s as cool as a cucumber and it would take a lot of mistakes for her to end up anywhere but the top of the podium.

But there could be a legitimate fight for silver this year, especially between MyKayla Skinner of the United States, Jessica Lopez of Venezuela, Ellie Black of Canada, Vanessa Ferrari of Italy, and Claudia Fragapane of Great Britain. Any of these five could land on the podium, and while it would take a lot to beat Biles, the silver and bronze medals won’t go to anyone without a fight.

Skinner had a rough day at podium training, crashing a couple of Chengs (including one scary one where she missed a hand completely and was about a foot away from landing on her head) before looking shaky on bars and crashing her double twisting double layout on floor (she later hit it in the evening training session, though it looked a little short). Her beam actually looked great, overall…she had a few checks on her full turn, of all things, but her bhs + tuck full was excellent and she actually hit 180 on quite a few of her splits, proving that she wasn’t kidding when she said she was working on flexibility.

When I talked to Skinner, she said she was getting used to the equipment and being back in competition mode. It makes sense…she often looks a bit behind on training days, but in 2014 she was the only U.S. gymnast to hit every single routine between P&G Championships and Worlds. She definitely has the mindset for competition and even if her routines might have some messy bits, she’s quick to get over it and come back strong on her next event.

But still, she’s not a shoo-in for silver, the way other U.S. gymnasts at this competition have been in the past. Lopez will be especially threatening…after Worlds, she won the all-around title at the Central American & Caribbean Games before going on to win two World Cup medals, including silver at Stuttgart and bronze at Glasgow. Her bars and beam looked super clean in training, and she’s consistent enough on vault and floor to earn a high all-around score.

Black could also be a threat. She is absolutely thrilled to be competing, especially coming off of a silver medal win at the World Cup in Glasgow in December. When I talked to her, she seemed calm despite her excitement about being invited to compete at the American Cup – something she’s wanted for a long time – and was very happy with her training. She’s been focusing mainly on getting consistent on bars while shuffling around some of her tumbling on floor, but otherwise is looking super strong on beam, which could be her ticket to the podium here.

Both Ferrari and Fragapane would be next on the list behind those three; while they looked good for the most part, each is struggling a tiny bit (Ferrari on bars mostly, and it looked like she downgraded on beam and floor from what I could tell, and then Fragapane on bars, where she kept missing her piked Tkatchev). I don’t know if they quite have the numbers to mix with Skinner, Black, or Lopez, but it wouldn’t take more than just small mistakes from those three to give Ferrari and Fragapane an in.

You could also think of Natsumi Sasada of Japan and Erika Fasana of Italy as podium contenders, though I think they’d each have to perform at their very best and expect mistakes from others to make it on. Sasada just earned the bronze at the WOGA Classic a couple of weeks ago, but she doesn’t have any routine with really high difficulty across the board, so she’d have to be at her all-time cleanest and then expect mistakes from those at the top to have a shot.

Fasana, who said she’s so excited just to be in the U.S. for the very first time and is a bit overwhelmed at how big everything in Texas is, looked awesome at both Serie A competitions in Italy thus far. She brings a very reliable DTY to the table and has some solid tumbling on floor, but again, the podium won’t be easy without mistakes from others.

Finally, there’s Emily Little of Australia. Little is only months into her comeback. She first returned at the Mexican Open in December, looking excellent and earning silver, surprising everyone. Though she still had a ways to go in Acapulco, she looks much improved over the past three months, and will be competing her DTY this weekend. I don’t think she looks quite ready for a medal at a competition with this deep of a field just yet, but this meet should be another great stop on her excellent comeback thus far.

So yes, Biles will win, we all know it, no one is surprised. But don’t listen to the cynics who think that makes it boring. With Biles, you’ll get to see a gymnastics legend in full beast mode before the majority of the world has even heard her name. What could be better? And the fight for silver and bronze will be a showdown between some of the best the world has to offer.

Article by Lauren Hopkins
Photo thanks to USA Gymnastics