Grace McCallum, who will represent Team USA on two events in the world championships team final on her birthday

The team gold medal at world championships has belonged to the U.S. women every year since 2011, when the young squad led by Aly Raisman defied everyone’s expectations to come back from an injury to Alicia Sacramone and beat the reigning champs by more than four points.

Since this turning point in the sport, the U.S. women have dominated at every world championships and Olympic Games, winning back-to-back world team titles in 2014 and 2015 in addition to the coveted Olympic golds in 2012 and 2016. Even after all of 2016’s best retired or went on hiatus post-Rio, even when fans of the sport questioned if the new kids could keep the tradition going, even with everything in the federation working against them and making it harder for them to come together with no national team camp and no national team coordinator for much of this year, the U.S. women have risen to every challenge and come into this team final with a nine-point lead over the rest of the field.

Yes, having Simone Biles back helps. Scrapping her scores and replacing them with someone like Ragan Smith‘s would take that lead down by several points, but it’s not all about Biles. If the U.S. women had to replace Biles, they’d still be at least four points ahead of the rest of the field, a monstrous gap considering that’s the same amount that separates the teams ranked second through eighth.

The U.S. women will once again be unbeatable here in Doha’s team final, where Biles will anchor all four events – “she earned it,” says high performance director Tom Forster – while Morgan Hurd will compete all but beam, and newcomers Riley McCusker, Grace McCallum, and Kara Eaker will round them out.

On Facebook, Forster discussed his decision to use McCusker over Hurd on beam, rationalizing that she’s looked fantastic in training and putting his confidence in her knowing she won’t miss her flight series again as she did in qualifications. Forster, who has been so transparent with every decision throughout this competition, says she deserves and has earned this second chance, and this is everything emblematic of the changes coming to the women’s program at the moment. The governing body is still more or less a mess, but Forster’s handling of the women’s team has been everything supporters of the sport have demanded for so long, and I’m happy to see that he is acting on his words rather than just saying them.

Russia and China ended up three tenths apart in qualifications, surprisingly close in my opinion, especially as the Russians had a fairly strong performance, barring a few errors. With Aliya Mustafina back, they were able to score similarly to how they finished in the team final at Euros, and honestly, I don’t see them scoring much higher in the final, even if they go 12 for 12.

The Russians impressed me with their fantastic three-up three-count performance in the Euros final, so I give them credit for that, but at worlds, this format has been detrimental to them in the past, causing them to miss the podium completely in Glasgow three years ago. Their consistency is much stronger now, and I have far more faith in this team than I did in their 2015 squad, so they absolutely have it in them to make it through with no falls, but if they don’t they could be in danger.

This is partly because the Chinese team has far more room to make up than the Russians do. They can add at least a point on beam with stronger routines from Chen Yile and Liu Tingting, and they can also make up a good amount on floor from Chen and Zhang Jin, both of whom hit but not at their full potential.

However, while the Chinese girls have the skills and ability to increase their scores, their consistency is far more worrisome than that of the Russians. The potential is there, but so are the nerves, and while I know they were all pretty mad about their performance overall, which is an excellent motivator coming into this final, I’m not fully confident in them using that anger to fight through the nerves. If anything, I think it could mean more mistakes, so I’d give the Russians the edge in this battle…but really, it could go either way.

The best thing about this final is that if Russia and China make mistakes, there’s not one team that could legitimately threaten for the podium, but several teams, which could end up making the fight for silver and bronze a brutal one.

The Canadians are one of those teams. After finishing a best-in-history four place in qualifications, where they were on fire making very few mistakes despite coming in with a team missing one of its top members, the Canadians have the fuel to keep it going with their eyes on the prize.

Led by Ellie Black, the team was close to perfect this weekend, but still has some room to add tenths, like on Black’s vault and from pretty much everyone on beam and floor. Just 1.2 points back from China and 1.5 back from Russia in prelims, a hit meet from them up against even just one fall from the top teams will absolutely hold up for a medal win. We’ll see if they can make magic happen two days in a row, but their confident energy throughout the meet so far has been nothing short of inspiring, and I’d love to see them make history by landing on the podium.

Brazil, about a point back from Canada, could also be in the mix. When I talked to Valeri Liukin after their subdivision this weekend, he talked about a proverb in Russia that says “Only a bad soldier doesn’t dream of becoming a general.” He was disappointed in the mistakes and falls from his team this weekend, adding that “Brazil doesn’t dream about fifth place,” but he believes that his team has it in them to do even better in the final, and so do I.

Considering their talent, fifth could be seen as a disappointment, and the gymnasts clearly weren’t thrilled with their day. But we also have to consider the fact that this is Brazil’s first time making a team final at world championships since 2007, which was team captain Jade Barbosa‘s first year at the senior level. It’s been a long road back to the big leagues at worlds, but I love that they’re not satisfied and know they can do better. Hopefully that’ll drive them to compete a fantastic meet today to give the top teams a run for their money.

Coming into this year after such a successful 2017, I thought this would finally be Japan’s year to win a medal, but first they lost Sae Miyakawa as she withdrew to deal with the drama surrounding her coach’s abusive practices, and then just minutes before prelims, they lost Aiko Sugihara to a back injury, a real shame as Yuki Uchiyama – who could’ve provided much-needed scores on bars and beam – didn’t travel with the team to Doha and so they’re working with just four athletes here.

While Mai Murakami and Asuka Teramoto are incredible and did a fantastic job leading newcomers Hitomi Hatakeda and Nagi Kajita in qualifications, the new kids just don’t have the difficulty to help get Japan to the top. Hatakeda was excellent this weekend and will provide scores on all four events in the final, as will Murakami and Teramoto, making this an all-around competition for the three of them while Kajita cheers from the sidelines. Three athletes compared to five from the other teams isn’t the best way to come into a three-up three-count situation, so while I think they can still fight for a solid finish, the podium could be out of reach for them for the time being.

I’m not sure where I stand on France getting in. The team looked super nervous in qualifications, with mistakes, wobbles, and form breaks from pretty much everyone throughout the meet causing them to miss out on several expected individual finals – like bars for Juliette Bossu, beam for Marine Boyer, and both of these events for Mélanie De Jesus Dos Santos.

The team showed that with super confident routines in the three-up three-count prelims at Euros, they were capable of breaking a 164, and with the mistakes here – and without a huge vault from Coline Devillard, who is missing Doha due to injury – France fell a little over two points shy of that number. There are many places where they can add tenths back, and while I think a 164 would be a reach with just a Yurchenko full replacing Devillard, a mid 163 isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Will this be enough to challenge for the podium? If other teams make mistakes, yes. But the French girls will have to make sure they are absolutely perfect to take advantage of the bigger programs.

Germany rounds out the top eight teams to make the final, which was a massive shock considering how they looked at Euros and at their selection meets this fall. The team that didn’t make the Euros team final improved on their score in Glasgow by over 10 points here to make the worlds final, which is kind of unbelievable and totally unexpected.

Elisabeth Seitz being back is partly the reason for this, but the biggest blow to the team’s score at Euros was multiple falls for both Leah Griesser and Sarah Voss on beam. The team had to count a 9.633 and a 9.433 to the team total, but both Griesser and Voss were phenomenal on beam here in Doha, upping those 9s to low 13s, an incredible turnaround that completely supports the “second chances” argument.

The team was pretty fantastic in qualifications, and there are still a few tenths they can add here and there, but for them, just making the final was the goal and they surpassed every expectation to do it, defeating reigning bronze medalists Great Britain in the process. Even though Germany isn’t at full strength right now, with Sophie Scheder not at 100% and last year’s beam medalists Pauline Schäfer and Tabea Alt out with injuries, they came together as a team and will hopefully just come out and have a blast today in their first team final since 2011.

It was a bummer seeing Great Britain miss out, especially considering just a tenth made all the difference, but with so many injuries and knowing they made a few more mistakes than they could afford, they don’t seem to be taking it too hard and are finding the light in their individual victories.

For Ellie Downie, it was performing a mostly error-free all-around set after an “absolutely horrific” training day the prior afternoon. For her sister, Becky Downie, it was finally coming back from an injuries that kept her out of worlds last year and Euros this year to make the bars final with one of the most difficult sets in the world. And for Kelly Simm, it was making the all-around final, the first worlds all-around final of her career after a season that has seen her truly step up as a leader.

Also missing out were the Netherlands by about two points and Belgium by a little over two, with both teams counting a few too many mistakes, including a fall counted on both bars and beam for the Belgians.

The Dutch team seemed happy with how they did, knowing the team final would be a stretch with several of their veterans injured, but the Belgians brought the best possible team they could and the girls were very disappointed to make mistakes on their best events after such solid vault and floor rotations. Still, both teams made the individual finals they were supposed to make, and the Netherlands saw an especially promising performance from new senior Naomi Visser, who was outstanding on all four events and will add tremendous value to the team’s depth going forward.

I’m going to eventually have a full recap of how every non-team final nation performed in qualifications, but rounding out the top 24 to qualify to the 2019 World Championships also included Italy, Romania, South Korea, Australia, North Korea, Hungary, Spain, Mexico, Ukraine, Switzerland, Poland, Argentina, and the Czech Republic.

You can watch the women’s team final on the FIG YouTube channel beginning at 4 pm in Doha (9 am ET).

Article by Lauren Hopkins