Anastasiia Bachynska, Angelina Radivilova, Yana Fedorova, Diana Varinska, and Valeriia Osipova of Ukraine
The first subdivision for women’s qualifications includes the Ukrainian and Australian teams, and then individuals from the Dominican Republic, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei, and Nigeria.
Both Ukraine and Australia are bubble teams for qualifying to the Olympic Games. Australia got close to the top 12 last year, but a few recent injuries and replacements could affect their overall scoring potential…though with heavy hitters like Georgia Godwin, Emma Nedov, and Georgia-Rose Brown holding down the fort, I wouldn’t count them out right away.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has its best team in literally forever, and if they can just hit — and hold on for 11 more subdivisions — I think they absolutely have a shot at cracking the top 12, especially if other teams have it rough. Anastasiia Bachynska and Diana Varinska will help the team as the top scorers, while Angelina Radivilova is a strong leader, and they’ll see key scores from Yana Fedorova and Valeriia Osipova to round them out.
This subdivision has a few with the potential to make the all-around final. Ukraine’s Varinska and Bachynska should get there pretty easily, with Radivilova a backup option, and Australia’s Godwin should also be a strong option for the final, with Nedov also competing all four events and showing the potential to score around what she’d need to make it.
From the other programs in this subdivision, the only one who would be considered having a real chance at making the all-around final is Marina Nekrasova, though she’d need an A+ day and would need others to miss out, for sure. She’s still a leading contender for an Olympic spot, however, and we’re also looking at Yamilet Peña from the Dominican Republic and perhaps one of the girls from Chinese Taipei for Olympic qualification.
None of the gymnasts in this subdivision is a heavy hitter for vault, though there’s always the chance Peña could make it happen, and Nekrasova has picked up some pretty strong vault scores over the past year, so I’m going to give her an outside shot as well.
If Varinska hits, she’s going to be borderline for making it into the final.
Obviously beam is unpredictable, but my biggest hopes for options here are Australia’s Nedov and Chinese Taipei’s Ting Hua-Tien. Ting hasn’t been quite as crisp this year as she was last year, but when she hits, she’s lovely. The Ukrainians — especially Varinska — could also make this happen, but again…it’s beam.
This is a pretty weak group for floor overall, but floor as an event isn’t super high-scoring, so while we definitely have several around the world who are capable of a 13.8 or higher — which were the scores we saw from the top finalists last year — it wouldn’t be impossible to see one or two lower-scoring routines get in, in which case Bachynska would have a slight shot, and I’d like to see Godwin also have a chance.