Team Japan

The qualification rounds for WAG begin today at world championships, and this year there’s a LOT of potential to shake things up.

Below, we break down the teams we expect to see in the final and challenging for the podium, the teams that could go either way, and those we don’t see making it this year.

NO QUESTION

The must-watch teams this year are two stunning programs from Asia, with both Japan and China looking better than they have frankly in decades, and we could live in a world where these two mirror what their MAG programs are known for, which is battling it out for the gold medal.

Now, I will say that I’m not quite as optimistic as some others about this happening. For one, most of the scores we’ve seen from these athletes have come from competitions that have been, um, embellished quite a bit, with the Asian Championships and the Asian Games two of the most outrageously overscored meets of the year when you crunch the numbers so a lot of the calculations I’ve seen online – like all those 172+ scores – are fantasy, I fear.

HOWEVER. Throwing all scores away and simply watching the routines, the Japanese and Chinese teams are doing magic across the board. Japan has newcomer Nishiyama Misa with a completely stunning all-around program, and veteran Sugihara Aiko looks basically better than ever. Then for China, what they’re capable of on bars and beam will be some of the best gymnastics in the entire competition, and though they have some deficits on vault and floor, I think they do enough there to keep them afloat, and if they have a hit competition, I totally see them back on the podium for the first time since 2018.

Of course, there’s also the United States, and even though they recently had a shakeup with Hezly Rivera withdrawing due to injury and Dulcy Caylor coming in to replace her – competing on beam only – I don’t think it’s going to be an automatic “oh no, they’re off the podium!” situation. Claire Pease is one of the best all-arounders in the world, and they have a great balance across the rest of their program, as well as what should be the top vault rotation, which is always going to boost them in the standings. They also tend to be one of the most consistent teams, which is a major edge on the rest of their competitors, because how many times have Japan and China come in as “ones to watch” over the past few years only to flop in the finals?

So I’d say for the podium, it’s these three teams that should be there, and all will easily make it from qualifications into the final, but the chaos of a WAG team final can and probably will shake things up.

Also a lock for the final for me are probably Great Britain and Italy. The Brits have had moments this year that had me a little concerned, but they got Alice Kinsella back from maternity leave looking stunning just in the knick of time, and the rest of the squad is pretty much the best they can do right now with none of this season’s key players out.

The Italians are missing some key players, but they have so much depth it’s not even a concern to me. With a team nearly identical to their silver medal-winning European Championships squad, they’ll have a few deficits across the board, so it’s not a perfect team, but I think they also have enough balance across all four apparatuses that one weak spot on each won’t hurt them.

ON THE BUBBLE

Before the visa drama, the Russians would’ve been a lock both for the final and for the podium, but their three top competitors were replaced by good but not necessarily world class athletes, many of whom have very limited international experience due to the war keeping them at home. I do think they have team final potential, and could possibly come in ahead of teams that I have on my “no question” list…but I’m definitely being conservative for now!

I wanted to keep my “locks” section to five teams, but I think France, Australia, Brazil, and Canada are all super likely to make it in – the problem is that they and Russia can’t all do it, so as great as these programs are, one is going to miss out.

France is looking really good, bolstered by first-year senior Elena Colas and rounded out by a great mix of strong veterans and super talented newcomers, while Australia is basically looking better than ever and has a top-tier team in Rotterdam, though I’m a little worried that not having Georgia Godwin on hand could hold them back a bit, Brazil has a handful of Olympic medalists in the mix one one side but then newcomers on the other side who may not be on the higher end of the scoring spectrum, and Canada is led by the legendary Ellie Black along with one of the most talented young athletes in the mix in Lia Monica Fontaine. So for these four and the Russians, I think it could end up being really close and we could see a team miss out by the narrowest of margins.

Others on the shortlist for the final are the Netherlands, South Korea, Germany, and Spain, all of which have great potential and many individual standouts with final potential, though I don’t think they’re as well-balanced as some of the other programs on this list so it’d take an incredible day plus mistakes from others to make it to the final.

PROBABLY NOT

As fun as it was to watch Algeria get the upset for gold at African Championships and for a medal at the Mediterranean Games this year, and as much as Kaylia Némour can do as probably the best athlete in the entire field, I think they’re still overall a little too far behind to land among the top eight here, though I’m excited to see them get their country’s best-ever team finish – whatever it is will be a MASSIVE upgrade from the current record, which is 40th place over two decades ago!

Romania is depleted af right now and I can’t possibly see them among the best here, so we’ll see a bit of a decline compared to last quad. And the rest of the programs here just don’t have the difficulty to challenge, including Argentina, Switzerland, Ukraine, Mexico (though I think they have potential for a record?), Sweden, Belgium, Belarus, and Malaysia.

Again, all of these programs have standout atheltes and I’m excited to see everything I can from each of them! But as teams, they’re just a bit too far behind the top of the pack.

Article by Lauren Hopkins