Who’s On Track to Qualify for Tokyo?

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Lee Yun-seo of South Korea surprised to outscore teammate Yeo Seo-jeong in the all-around, with Yeo now likely to qualify to the Olympics on vault

After a whirlwind day in Stuttgart, where we saw gymnasts in the first six subdivisions compete both for recognition at the world level as well as for the chance to compete in Tokyo next year, we bet you’re wondering who’s on track to make it.

The Teams

The top 9 teams not already qualified will be eligible to send a full team to the 2020 Olympic Games.

Rank Nation Score
1 China 169.161
2 France 166.713
3 Canada 162.922
4 Germany 161.897
5 Belgium 161.238
6 Australia 157.945
7 Ukraine 156.961
8 South Korea 156.662
9 North Korea 153.797
10 Romania 151.895
11 Czech Republic 147.639
12 Egypt 147.163

China has already qualified for the Games, and I’d say the four after them — France, Canada, Germany, and Belgium — are safe. Even though we still have another 12 teams competing tomorrow, two of them have already qualified to the Olympics, and only five of these will really be threatening for the top 12.

So that’s three already qualified, four today that are in a good position to qualify, and five tomorrow that have the strongest potential to qualify, bringing us to an even 12. It’s the same 12 that were in the top last year, which is also the same 12 that competed in Rio three years ago, and though there are a few bubble teams, I think it’s going to take a LOT of mistakes for one of these bubble teams to get in.

With Australia as the closest bubble team right now at a 157.945, I just can’t see one of tomorrow’s five expected teams getting below that even on a really bad day. Even a really weak Great Britain broke a 160 last year, and Italy with a mostly B team had a high 156. If a team has a real meltdown, it’s possible that a team like Australia could get in, but so far everything has worked out pretty much exactly as expected, and if the same continues tomorrow, we’ll be looking to add Japan, Brazil, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and Italy to this list.

The All-Arounders

Rank Athlete Nation Score
1 Georgia Godwin Australia 53.331
2 Diana Varinska Ukraine 52.899
3 Lee Yun-seo South Korea 52.499
4 Danusia Francis Jamaica 50.982
5 Kim Su Jong North Korea 50.866
6 Aneta Holasova Czech Republic 50.766
7 Marcia Vidiaux Cuba 50.632
8 Maria Holbura Romania 50.632
9 Elisa Hämmerle Austria 50.532
10 Anastasiya Alistratava Belarus 50.066
11 Mandy Mohamed Egypt 49.831
12 Barbora Mokosova Slovakia 49.732
13 Filipa Martins Portugal 49.698
14 Caitlin Rooskrantz South Africa 49.466
15 Jonna Adlerteg Sweden 49.099
16 Gabriela Janik Poland 48.832
17 Simona Castro Chile 48.607
18 Oksana Chusovitina Uzbekistan 48.433
19 Ting Hua-Tien Chinese Taipei 48.398
20 Marina Nekrasova Azerbaijan 48.166
21 Megan Ryan Ireland 48.066
22 Maria Kharenkova Georgia 47.865
23 Argyro Afrati Greece 47.865
24 Adela Sajn Slovenia 47.832
25 Irina Sazonova Iceland 47.198
26 Milka Gehani Sri Lanka 47.016
27 Karelys Diaz Puerto Rico 46.966
28 Ana Palacios Guatemala 46.598
29 Katriel De Sousa Venezuela 45.232
30 Celeste Mordenti Luxembourg 45.033
31 Rifda Irfanaluthfi Indonesia 44.832
32 Annabel Agba Nigeria 43.824
33 Raegan Rutty Cayman Islands 43.066
34 Sofia Nair Algeria 42.965
35 Camil Betances Dominican Republic 36.599

Now, I chose to make this list assuming the expected top 12 will be the top 12, but of course, if one of the expected teams ends up floundering tomorrow, this list would change (e.g., if [insert team] doesn’t qualify, their top all-arounder would move onto this list, Godwin would be removed, and Australia would be moved onto the teams that qualified).

We also have to consider that some spots are going to be taken away based on event finals. Right now, for example, vault has Yeo Seo-jeong leading the field and Teja Belak in eighth, and since they won’t qualify on teams or through the all-around in the above list, they would earn Olympic spots if she finishes in the top three among non-full team gymnasts in the vault final. This would add them to the list of individual qualifiers, taking away Agba and Irfanaluthfi…and so on, depending on how many non-team apparatus final gymnasts we end up seeing.

Right now, there are three gymnasts who are definitely out — Rutty, Nair, and Betances — but as I said, we’re also likely to lose a few more to apparatus finishes.

Based on this, I’d say the top 10 are safe, as in nothing that happens tomorrow will cause them to miss out. There are about 15 gymnasts competing tomorrow that I think will get around a 48 or higher, so I’d go down to 15th place on this list for “super likely,” and then those in about 16th through 24th are going to be hit or miss, depending on what happens tomorrow, and anyone ranked lower than 24th right now is probably not likely to qualify (unless everyone melts down tomorrow because #gymnastics).

One last thing to remember, since Japan is likely to qualify a full team, their host country invitation will get thrown back into the pool of individual all-arounders at world championships. However, this won’t be determined/awarded until next year even though we technically know it’s happening now.

Let’s say Sajn is the last one to make it in, with Sazonova the alternate. Japan then qualifies the full team, opening up a spot for Sazonova, making Gehani the alternate.

Article by Lauren Hopkins

17 thoughts on “Who’s On Track to Qualify for Tokyo?

  1. Stop the drama with Chusovitina. She is a one-trick poney and haven’t been relevant for almost a decade.
    Plus her severe lack of artistry is a BETRAYAL of her Soviet foundations. I say retire already.

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    • I aGREE. Chuso has only consistently made vault finals at the top level of her sport for the last decade. But where’s her recent World/Olympic medal? She should quit. So should every other athlete who only makes finals, but doesn’t medal. In fact, I think everyone in qualifications who is not currently top 3 on an event should give up and retire right now. Medals mean everything and if you don’t medal, you have no place competing at a World Championship. I’m not even sure why we say athletes were 5th, 6th, or 7th place. Anyone who doesn’t medal really should just have IDIOT LOSER tattooed on their forehead to prevent them from every trying again.
      PLUS even if Chuso did medal on vault, that’s only ONE event. I think all athletes who have only medaled on one event should retire also. The legacies of Yuri Chechi, Eleftherios Petrounias, McKayla Maroney, and He Kexin should be dumped like toxic waste into an eternal trash bin. Derwael should leave the competition right now and keep her dignity. While Kara Eaker and Brooklyn Moors should be run out of the building in disgrace.
      Now I MIGHT be inclined to give Chuso a break on artistry, because, unlike most modern gymnasts, she actually has great body carriage, clean arms and hands, and overall the pleasing lines that remain from early ballet training. But you’re right, she’s not amazingly artistic, which is a huge, unforgiveable betrayal that I just can’t get past. There’s really no option but to try her for treason at this point. Once she’s found guilty and served hard time in a brutal Uzbek prison, she should go put on a pair of yoga pans, and drink too much wine, like a respectable 44 year-olds.
      (just having fun with you. you don’t have to like the Chuso love, but that’s some strong dislike you have there)

      Like

    • I’m fine with people disliking gymnasts, but telling gymnasts to retire is pretty immature and petty. Let them do what they want while we spectate. You don’t have to watch.

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  2. Do you think the Aussie team would have had a better shot if they’d drawn a later subdivision? They were always going to be on the bubble but it appears E scores become slightly more lax as the competition progresses.

    Like

    • They won of Belgium in a competition in Belgium. But yesterday Belgium was really overscored dragged by Nina that is fantastic on bars, but that’s it. She even got a final in fx with that ridiculous wolf turn nightmare choreo. Overscored like hell. Tumbling of 11 year olds, bad landings . I mean. I think with a fair jury they would have the chance to beat Belgium.

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  3. Georgia-Rose Brown is currently 5th on floor. Imagine if Australia qualifies FOUR individuals to Tokyo (Godwin AA Worlds, Brown FX Worlds, Nedov BB World Cup Series, ??? Oceanic Championships) that would be SO GOOD

    Liked by 1 person

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