After a whirlwind day in Stuttgart, where we saw gymnasts in the first six subdivisions compete both for recognition at the world level as well as for the chance to compete in Tokyo next year, we bet you’re wondering who’s on track to make it.
The top 9 teams not already qualified will be eligible to send a full team to the 2020 Olympic Games.
China has already qualified for the Games, and I’d say the four after them — France, Canada, Germany, and Belgium — are safe. Even though we still have another 12 teams competing tomorrow, two of them have already qualified to the Olympics, and only five of these will really be threatening for the top 12.
So that’s three already qualified, four today that are in a good position to qualify, and five tomorrow that have the strongest potential to qualify, bringing us to an even 12. It’s the same 12 that were in the top last year, which is also the same 12 that competed in Rio three years ago, and though there are a few bubble teams, I think it’s going to take a LOT of mistakes for one of these bubble teams to get in.
With Australia as the closest bubble team right now at a 157.945, I just can’t see one of tomorrow’s five expected teams getting below that even on a really bad day. Even a really weak Great Britain broke a 160 last year, and Italy with a mostly B team had a high 156. If a team has a real meltdown, it’s possible that a team like Australia could get in, but so far everything has worked out pretty much exactly as expected, and if the same continues tomorrow, we’ll be looking to add Japan, Brazil, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and Italy to this list.
|3||Lee Yun-seo||South Korea||52.499|
|5||Kim Su Jong||North Korea||50.866|
|6||Aneta Holasova||Czech Republic||50.766|
|14||Caitlin Rooskrantz||South Africa||49.466|
|19||Ting Hua-Tien||Chinese Taipei||48.398|
|26||Milka Gehani||Sri Lanka||47.016|
|27||Karelys Diaz||Puerto Rico||46.966|
|29||Katriel De Sousa||Venezuela||45.232|
|33||Raegan Rutty||Cayman Islands||43.066|
|35||Camil Betances||Dominican Republic||36.599|
Now, I chose to make this list assuming the expected top 12 will be the top 12, but of course, if one of the expected teams ends up floundering tomorrow, this list would change (e.g., if [insert team] doesn’t qualify, their top all-arounder would move onto this list, Godwin would be removed, and Australia would be moved onto the teams that qualified).
We also have to consider that some spots are going to be taken away based on event finals. Right now, for example, vault has Yeo Seo-jeong leading the field and Teja Belak in eighth, and since they won’t qualify on teams or through the all-around in the above list, they would earn Olympic spots if she finishes in the top three among non-full team gymnasts in the vault final. This would add them to the list of individual qualifiers, taking away Agba and Irfanaluthfi…and so on, depending on how many non-team apparatus final gymnasts we end up seeing.
Right now, there are three gymnasts who are definitely out — Rutty, Nair, and Betances — but as I said, we’re also likely to lose at least one more to apparatus finishes.
Based on this, I’d say the top 10 are safe, as in nothing that happens tomorrow will cause them to miss out. There are about 15 gymnasts competing tomorrow that I think will get around a 48 or higher, so I’d go down to 15th place on this list for “super likely,” and then those in about 16th through 24th are going to be hit or miss, depending on what happens tomorrow, and anyone ranked lower than 24th right now is probably not likely to qualify (unless everyone melts down tomorrow because #gymnastics).
One last thing to remember, since Japan is likely to qualify a full team, their host country invitation will get thrown back into the pool of individual all-arounders at world championships. However, this won’t be determined/awarded until next year even though we technically know it’s happening now.
Let’s say Sajn is the last one to make it in, with Sazonova the alternate. Japan then qualifies the full team, opening up a spot for Sazonova, making Gehani the alternate.
Article by Lauren Hopkins